IMP Global Megatrend Umbrella Fund Commentary - 28 February 2025
Data as of 28.02.2025 - Marketing Communication IMP Global Megatrend Fund MRB Fund Partners AG | Fraumünsterstrasse 9 | 8001 Zürich | Switzerland | www.mrbpartner.ch IMP Global Megatrend Umbrella Fund Commentary The m...
Author
Karin Wiederkehr and Stefan Wiederkehr
Date Published
Data as of 28.02.2025 - Marketing Communication IMP Global Megatrend Fund MRB Fund Partners AG | Fraumünsterstrasse 9 | 8001 Zürich | Switzerland | www.mrbpartner.ch IMP Global Megatrend Umbrella Fund Commentary The month of February proved to be exceptionally volatile, as the U.S. market faced a dramatic downturn in the last two weeks. The “manic headline roulette” reached a fever pitch, with geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and inflationary concerns swirling. These factors, combined with looming tariffs, caused investor sentiment to shift significantly, pushing major U.S. indices into negative territory for the year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices endured sharp declines throughout the month, ending with monthly losses of -1.42% and -3.97%, respectively. While the earnings reports from the tech behemoths were largely strong and met market expectations, their positive results were overshadowed by cautious guidance, dampening investor optimism. Despite these challenging market conditions, we are pleased to report that our IMP Global Megatrend Fund has successfully maintained a positive year-to-date performance of 1.04%, net of fees, as of February 28, 2025. Amid these headwinds, it's important to note that the underlying fundamentals of the market remain strong, with robust earnings growth in several sectors and a still-resilient consumer base. The recent volatility may reflect short-term market anxiety rather than a long-term shift in sentiment. Moreover, while fears of a rotation away from U.S. stocks are gaining traction, it is still premature to conclude that this trend will be sustainable. U.S. equities, particularly megatrends in the technology, consumer discretionary, energy infrastructure, and utilities sectors, continue to benefit from innovation, strong earnings potential, and leadership in global markets. As traders hit the risk-off button, European and Chinese stocks were the main beneficiaries, continuing their upward trajectory since the beginning of the year. In this context, the IMP Global Megatrend Fund managed to sustain its positive performance for the year, benefiting from the targeted exposure to select companies within the said key markets. The fund’s strategic allocation enabled it to weather the volatility that has characterized the broader market. However, from a technical standpoint, we continue to maintain an overweight position in U.S. exposure as current market conditions indicate that equities have reached oversold levels, as evidenced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This suggests that valuations have begun to deflate, and the market is primed for a higher-than-average mean reversion as Spring approaches. While the broader economic outlook remains uncertain, the technical indicators point to the possibility of a short-to-medium term rally, driven by a correction in overextended sell-offs. Throughout the month, we maintained a static stance on new positions, focusing primarily on realizing gains from select outperformers and accumulating shares in existing investments that were deemed particularly attractive from a tactical perspective. Specifically, profits were partially realized from the following holdings: Galderma Group AG, Hermes International, Ferrari NV, and Marvell Technology, Inc. For Ferrari NV, a price surge driven by a strong earnings report served as the primary catalyst for trimming the position. Regarding the partial divestments in Galderma Group AG and Hermes International, the recent uptrend in their share prices presented an opportune moment to lock in profits, as these price movements were viewed as potentially overextended in the short term. In the case of Marvell Technology, Inc., the
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Data as of 28.02.2025 - Marketing Communication IMP Global Megatrend Fund MRB Fund Partners AG | Fraumünsterstrasse 9 | 8001 Zürich | Switzerland | www.mrbpartner.ch primary motivation for shaving the gains made stemmed from Amazon.com, Inc’s., announcement of increased capital expenditures; these are to be directed towards custom AI chip development, of which Marvell is a major supplier, resulting in a subsequent surge in its stock price. The proceeds from the above-mentioned sales were predominantly reinvested into the J.P. Morgan ETFs Ireland ICAV – Nasdaq Premium Income Active UCITS ETF. This product is primarily used as a cash management tool, with the added benefit of reduced exposure to the Nasdaq Composite, while paying a monthly dividend with a healthy yield of up-to 11 percent. We continued our strategy of purchasing additional shares in Coinbase Global, Inc., in anticipation of a strong Q4 earnings report, driven by increased retail and institutional activity, as well as naturally higher margin growth. Furthermore, the Trump Administration's evident pro-crypto stance is likely to provide sustained support for the market, potentially boosting investor confidence and contributing to further growth in the sector. Lastly, additional shares were accumulated in Walmart, Inc., as the weaker guidance regarding an uncertain economic outlook announced in the Q4 earnings report led to an exaggerated drawdown reaction, creating a tactical dip-buying opportunity, as performance metrics were overwhelmingly met. Looking ahead, the exacerbated market gyrations driven by headline reactions have strengthened our conviction to adopt an even more diligent and cautious approach, as market turbulence is likely to persist. While U.S. corporate strength remains our base case, we are prepared to pivot swiftly should the market backdrop be influenced by U.S. policy changes, along with their potential counterreactions and repercussions. Currently, we find ourselves in a transitional period, marked by acute challenges, yet still providing attractive long-term opportunities. Given the recent market sell-off, the CNN Fear & Greed Index has plunged into extreme fear territory, which historically signals a strong tendency for markets to mean revert. When investor sentiment is this bearish, it often sets the stage for a rebound, as fear can drive oversold conditions. Moreover, while the second half of February tends to be historically weak, March typically brings a shift in sentiment. We remain committed to staying ahead of the curve, seizing the next wave of megatrend high-impact opportunities, and delivering strong, risk- adjusted returns for our investors. Thank you for your continued trust and support, Stefan Wiederkehr & Karin Wiederkehr
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