IMP Global Megatrend Umbrella Fund Commentary

Global markets in August remained at a key inflection point, balancing weaker but resilient equity performance with an evolving monetary landscape and persistent geopolitical headwinds. While valuations are stretched and concentration risks remain elevated, structural themes such as artificial intelligence continue to attract substantial investment flows and support long-term opportunities. Within this context, equities face a crossroads, with the S&P 500 Index posting its weakest monthly gain since March as it enters what has historically been the most challenging month of the year. Amid these conditions, the IMP Global Megatrend Umbrella Fund continued its positive trajectory, delivering a monthly return of 0.38%. This performance lifted the fund’s year-to-date return to 6.13% as of August 31, 2025 (net of fees). The strategy remained firmly aligned with its long-term structural focus while maintaining a cautious stance toward near-term market risks.

U.S. equity indices extended their gains slightly in August, supported by buoyant corporate earnings, in-line inflation data, and continued optimism surrounding monetary easing. Valuations, however, remain demanding. The S&P 500 trades at a forward P/E multiple of approximately 22.5x, while the Shiller CAPE ratio has climbed toward 38x, placing it near the 99th percentile of the past two decades. Market concentration has also intensified, with the ten largest companies accounting for nearly 40% of index weight. Despite these imbalances, equity markets remain constructive heading into year-end, supported by robust capex momentum. Artificial intelligence continues to anchor earnings forecasts and strengthen long-term growth potential. Geopolitical risks, while persistent, have eased somewhat with the announcement of new bilateral agreements between the United States and major trading partners, including the European Union and Japan. These developments have helped to temper fears of a full-scale tariff escalation cycle. Nevertheless, effective tariff rates are expected to remain in the mid-teens through 2026, with punitive measures still targeting specific sectors and countries, such as Switzerland. While these headwinds constrain overall growth, the probability of an outright recession has diminished, given reduced systemic escalation risks.

Artificial intelligence remains the dominant engine of structural growth. While the near-term cycle carries the risk of temporary overinvestment as spending has outpaced immediate revenue realization, adoption across enterprises and consumer applications is accelerating rapidly. Usage metrics indicate exponential uptake, and monetization models from subscription-based tools to AI-enhanced enterprise services are gaining traction. Even on conservative assumptions, the medium-term revenue opportunity could exceed $1.5 trillion annually. Technology remains a cornerstone of our equity positioning, fueled by accelerating AI adoption, rapid data growth, and the ongoing expansion of critical digital infrastructure. These forces continue to reshape global value chains and unlock transformative opportunities. Beyond technology, we see attractive opportunities in healthcare and longevity, evolving consumer trends and demographics, and the rebalancing of global economic power. Concurrently, utilities and industrials are poised to benefit from the energy transition and the expansion of smart-city infrastructure, where accelerating electrification and digitalization are redefining urban systems.

In this sense, currency markets remain an important consideration amid shifting global dynamics. The U.S. dollar is likely to stay under pressure, with softer labor data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts weighing on sentiment. Political priorities ahead of the 2026 midterms and easing trade tensions with China could provide some offset, but the balance points toward gradual and persistent USD weakness. The Swiss franc has held firm on safe-haven demand, though persistent tariffs may prompt the Swiss National Bank to ease further. Taken together, these dynamics suggest a moderate weakening of USD/CHF over the medium term, supported by a modest positive carry from yield differentials. Volatility, however, is likely to remain elevated as markets react to shifting policy signals and geopolitical headlines. For investors, this environment underscores the importance of active management and selective hedging strategies.

Overall, August was marked by a continuation of shifting market dynamics, which we approached with a proactive stance. We selectively increased exposure to high-conviction names while realizing gains in positions that had performed strongly, thereby preserving discipline and managing concentration risk. This combination allowed us to capture tactical opportunities created by short-term dislocations, while ensuring our portfolio remains firmly aligned with the structural megatrends that drive our investment philosophy. Within the shift in economic power theme, we took advantage of market weakness in Ferrari NV. The stock came under pressure following in-line guidance, which we viewed as disconnected from the company’s enduring fundamentals. Ferrari’s commitment to a value-over-volume strategy, coupled with its strong geographic and product diversification, continues to underpin extraordinary pricing power. Increasing revenues from personalization further strengthen this profile, and we saw the pullback as a compelling entry point to add to our position. We also expanded our allocation to Coinbase Global, Inc., where we viewed the market’s reaction to the earnings release as excessive. As trading increasingly becomes a commoditized activity, we remain optimistic in Coinbase’s ability to preserve margins and maintain differentiation in an industry facing rising competition. From both a strategic positioning and valuation perspective, the company remains attractively positioned within the digital asset ecosystem.

In the Healthcare/Longevity revolution theme, we built further on last month’s initiation in Novo Nordisk A/S. The company’s blockbuster weight-loss therapy Wegovy was recently approved in the U.S. for the treatment of a serious form of liver disease. This development broadens its addressable market and reinforces its leadership position at the intersection of healthcare innovation and longevity. We believe Novo Nordisk remains uniquely positioned to benefit from rising global demand for effective treatments that improve both quality of life and long-term health outcomes. At the same time, portfolio risk management remained a priority. We executed a partial divestment in NVIDIA Corp. to crystallize gains following its strong year-to-date performance (+35%). We, thus, re-accumulated shares after a post-earnings sell-off created a tactical re-entry point. Demand remains robust, with the company’s 12-month forward order book continuing to outstrip supply, as the conservative baseline guidance excluded any chip sales to China. Importantly, we see additional upside potential should Sino-U.S. relations ease, enabling a re-uptake of China sales. Finally, we took profits through a partial sale of Alphabet Inc., which had reached a 52-week high. This divestment reflects our ongoing discipline of monetizing strength in overextended positions while maintaining core exposure to long-term growth themes.

Looking ahead, we remain focused on capturing long-term secular opportunities while navigating a late-cycle market environment. Elevated exposure risk warrants vigilance, and diversification across asset classes, regions, and thematic exposures remains central to our discipline. Seasonal risk aversion in September and potential inflation surprises could complicate near-term conditions, but the Federal Reserve’s likely anticipated monetary easing should provide an important counterbalance. With cumulative cuts of around 100 basis points expected through mid-2026, policy is shifting toward stabilizing employment and supporting growth despite lingering inflation pressures. Against this backdrop, the IMP Global Megatrend Umbrella Fund is well positioned to benefit from enduring structural themes while maintaining disciplined risk management in a changing macroeconomic landscape.

Thank you for your continued trust and support.

Stefan Wiederkehr & Karin Wiederkehr

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IMP Global Megatrend Umbrella Fund Commentary - 31 August 2025