IMP Global Megatrend Umbrella Fund Commentary

Global markets advanced in September, supported by solid corporate earnings, moderating inflation, and a shift in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, its first reduction since 2024, and signaled further easing ahead. Although U.S. equity valuations remain elevated, improving earnings, resilient growth, and a more accommodative policy outlook continue to support risk assets. The global economy remains in a phase of steady expansion, with the U.S. showing signs of healthy cooling rather than contraction. Strong investment in intellectual property and software continues to drive activity, while the September decline of 32,000 private payrolls, the largest since March 2023, points to a gradual labor market rebalancing that provides the Fed greater flexibility. Bloomberg projects an additional 75 basis points of rate cuts by the first quarter of 2026, reinforcing a growth-supportive policy stance. Against this backdrop, the IMP Global Megatrend Umbrella Fund delivered a robust 5.89 % return for the month, bringing its year-to-date gain to 12.38 % as of September 30, 2025, net of fees.

U.S. equities reached new highs during the month, with the S&P 500 rising 3.64%. The market remains supported by improving earnings momentum in technology, healthcare, and industrials, alongside cautious optimism about monetary easing. Market leadership has begun to broaden beyond the narrow group of stocks that dominated much of the past year, suggesting a more balanced performance and greater participation from cyclical sectors. Valuations remain elevated relative to historical norms, while investor sentiment stays measured and institutional positioning cautious. Although the market environment largely reflects improving fundamentals rather than speculative excess, some segments appear frothy, as analysts continue to highlight ongoing margin pressures and the importance of cost discipline, particularly in sectors linked to digitalization, healthcare innovation, and infrastructure investment.

As monetary policy and liquidity dynamics continue to influence equity risk appetite, capital is increasingly flowing into sectors that offer structural growth and earnings resilience. Central bank rate cuts are easing borrowing costs, improving corporate financing conditions, and enabling companies to expand capital expenditure and refinance on more favorable terms. This easing, coupled with broader market participation, suggests that the current rally may be built on stronger foundations compared to previous cycles. U.S. real yields have begun trending downward, easing valuation pressure on equities and allowing earnings growth to drive gains, rather than relying solely on multiple expansion. However, risks remain, including potential inflation surprises, policy missteps, or broader macroeconomic shocks that could trigger volatility. Despite these risks, the current environment, marked by ample liquidity, resilient growth, and expectations of further rate relief, remains supportive of continued equity upside, particularly in sectors linked to artificial intelligence, healthcare innovation, and energy transition.

The U.S. dollar traded modestly lower, following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and softer labor data, reinforcing expectations of further easing into 2026. The dollar index declined by approximately 0.7%, extending a gradual weakening trend that began earlier in the summer. While safe-haven flows and inflation uncertainty provided occasional support, the broader trend remains one of measured depreciation amid narrowing yield differentials and persistent fiscal imbalances. Looking ahead, we maintain a cautiously negative outlook on the dollar through year-end, as the Fed’s more aggressive easing compared to other major central banks, coupled with ongoing fiscal and current account deficits, is likely to keep the currency on a moderate downward path with intermittent volatility. In contrast, the Swiss franc remained resilient, buoyed by its safe-haven status and a persistent current account surplus, though inflation below the Swiss National Bank’s target and tariffs weighing on export competitiveness have heightened expectations for further policy easing. The SNB’s measured interventions to temper excessive currency strength aim to preserve financial stability and support domestic growth. Over the medium term, we expect the franc to remain firm but range-bound, balancing external demand for safety with the central bank’s preference for accommodative financial conditions.

Turning to portfolio management, we maintained a disciplined and strategic approach in September, leveraging market strength to realize gains from select holdings while reinvesting in high-conviction opportunities aligned with our long-term megatrend themes: Shifts in Economic Power and Smart Infrastructure/Smart Cities. Notably, we executed a partial divestment in Nebius Group NV following a sharp rally driven by the announcement of a transformational AI Cloud partnership with Microsoft, valued at up to $19.4 billion. The deal led to a 50% surge in the company’s share price and a year-to-date gain exceeding 250%. We saw this as an ideal opportunity to lock in profits while maintaining our strategic allocation. In a similar vein, and in line with our risk management strategy, we partially sold Alphabet Inc. after the stock hit a 52-week high, securing recent gains while retaining our exposure. We also trimmed our positions in Tesla Inc. and Constellation Energy Corporation, realizing gains after strong rallies and redeploying the proceeds into new opportunities. In addition, we fully exited our position in Marvell Technology, Inc. following the announcement of a $5 billion accelerated share repurchase program, which propelled the stock to its highest close since July. This allowed us to reallocate capital toward higher-conviction investments.

As part of our Shifts in Economic Power theme, we deployed proceeds from the aforementioned divestments into Klarna Group PLC, a leading fintech company at the forefront of AI-powered global payments and buy now, pay later (BNPL) solutions. The company’s trading debut presented a tactical entry point at an attractive valuation, with the IPO being more than 20 times oversubscribed. Klarna, with 111 million active users and annual gross merchandise volume of approximately $112 billion, operates at a revenue scale similar to its main competitor, Affirm, yet trades at roughly a 40% discount. Given the estimated $1 trillion total addressable market in BNPL and strong support from cornerstone investors, we see significant long-term potential. Following our initial investment, we added to our position later in the month, underscoring our continued conviction.

Within the Smart Infrastructure/Smart City megatrend, we initiated a new position in NuScale Power Corporation, the first mover and technological leader in small modular reactor (SMR) technology. With electricity demand accelerating on the back of artificial intelligence infrastructure expansion, NuScale is well positioned to play a central role in next-generation power solutions. The company’s Nuclear Regulatory Commission approval and progress toward its first binding contract by year-end mark important milestones, with operations expected to commence by 2031. Growing government support, including recent executive orders from the Trump Administration mandating new reactor construction, further strengthens the long-term investment case. We subsequently increased our allocation following favorable price action.

From a broader perspective, the interplay between monetary easing, resilient corporate fundamentals, and improving market breadth suggests that risk assets are likely to remain supported into the final quarter of the year. While elevated valuations warrant continued vigilance, the normalization of monetary policy and renewed investment in productivity-enhancing technologies provide a constructive backdrop for equities. We expect this late-cycle environment to favor quality companies with strong balance sheets, pricing power, and exposure to long-term structural themes. From a geopolitical standpoint, markets have remained notably composed despite renewed tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Historically, such events have tended to generate only temporary volatility in financial markets. We continue to believe that the greatest risk to investors in these environments lies in overreacting to short-term developments rather than maintaining disciplined exposure to enduring structural trends. At the same time, we continue to monitor developments in global supply chains, market dislocations, and investments in resilience and critical infrastructure, which may present new opportunities within the fund’s broader thematic framework.

Thank you for your continued trust and support.

Stefan Wiederkehr & Karin Wiederkehr

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IMP Global Megatrend Umbrella Fund Commentary - 30 September 2025