Idea Generation
IMP Global Megatrend Umbrella Fund: Megatrends/Investments Identification Process/Monitoring • Generate ideas for megatrends • Identify them, and • Select companies/investments for a specific megatrend Identifying Meg...
Author
Karin Wiederkehr and Stefan Wiederkehr
Date Published
Megatrends/Investments Identification Process/Monitoring
- Generate ideas for megatrends
- Identify them, and
- Select companies/investments for a specific megatrend
Identifying Megatrends
- Global and Regional Analysis: We start by keeping a close eye on long-term shifts in society, technology, demographics, economics, and the environment. We use a combination of macroeconomic data, societal trends, and technological advancements to identify these megatrends, as these are typically transformative and have far-reaching impacts.
- Research and Thought Leadership: We continuously review research reports, academic papers, and insights from leading think tanks. Conferences, white papers, and discussions with subject matter experts in various industries also help us spot trends early. This allows us to position ourselves ahead of the curve.
- Data-Driven Approach: We also rely on data analytics, looking at historical patterns and forecasts in sectors such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, health & wellness, and climate change, among others. Our research is data-driven to validate and ensure that these trends have strong potential to drive growth.
Defining and Prioritizing Megatrends
- Long-Term Sustainability: A key element in how we prioritize megatrends is their long-term sustainability. We focus on trends that will evolve over decades rather than those with short-lived hype. Sustainability, whether it’s environmental, economic, or societal, plays a crucial role in our evaluation.
- Market Readiness: We evaluate the readiness of various markets to adapt to and adopt these megatrends. Some trends may be nascent, while others may already be in the scaling phase.
- Emerging Technologies: Technological advancements often act as a catalyst for megatrends. For example, advancements in AI, quantum computing, or biotechnology can rapidly accelerate certain megatrends and create new opportunities.
Selecting Companies within a Megatrend
- Innovation and Leadership: When selecting companies within a particular megatrend, we prioritize innovation. We look for companies that are at the forefront of the trend, developing new technologies, business models, or approaches that differentiate them in the market.
- Financial Health and Growth Potential: Companies must not only align with the megatrend but also demonstrate strong financial health and growth potential. We perform rigorous fundamental analysis to assess profitability, scalability, and market positioning.
- Market Share and Competitive Advantage: We focus on companies that have a competitive advantage in their respective markets—whether that’s through intellectual property, brand strength, distribution networks, or economies of scale. This allows the companies to lead their market segments even as megatrends evolve.
Regular Reassessment
- Ongoing Monitoring: We continuously monitor the megatrends and the companies we invest in, adjusting our strategy as the trends evolve and new information comes to light. This helps us stay agile and make informed decisions.
- Emerging Opportunities: As new trends surface, we remain open to exploring opportunities outside our current scope, allowing us to adapt and grow alongside new opportunities